Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
